What is assumption mapping?

Assumption Mapping is a strategic innovation tool used to identify, prioritize, and test the riskiest assumptions behind a new business idea, product, or service. It helps teams reduce uncertainty and focus their efforts on what matters most for validating success.

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Why use this mapping canvas?

By plotting assumptions on a matrix, teams can quickly see which to validate first.

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How to use it?

To prioritize which concepts should be validated follow these 4 steps:

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1. Create a vision statement for your new idea/concept/product

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A vision statement summarizes the essence of the selected idea: "A (what) that (why) for (who) by (how)"

What? (product or service?)

Who? (target audience?)

Why? (what is the pain point?)

How? (what is the differentiation?)

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Example:

Product idea: AI tool that auto-summaries Teams calls

Target audience: Remote tech companies (10-100 employees)

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Example Vision statement:

‍A productivity-enhancing AI tool that eliminates the need for manual meeting notes and improves team alignment for remote tech companies seeking efficiency and clarity by automatically summarizing video calls and integrating with popular platforms like Zoom and Microsoft Teams.

‍When the target audience is not clear, you should analyse who the customer is, en whether the customer is also the consumer (end-customer) of the new idea/service/product.

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2. Create assumptions based on your business model

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Example list assumptions:

A1: Tech teams hate writing meeting notes Low High If not true, no one needs this tool

A2: Managers will pay €15/month per user Low High Affects pricing model & revenue viability

A3: Integration with Zoom & Teams is technically feasible Medium High Core to the product's functionality

A4: Competitors don’t already dominate this space Medium Medium Determines market opportunity

A5: Teams will trust AI to summarize sensitive content Low High Trust is crucial for adoption

A6: Users prefer written summaries over audio highlights High Medium Influences product UX & feature design

A7: Product can be built in 4 months with 2 devs Medium Medium Impacts timeline & budget planning

A8: Remote teams meet at least 3 times a week High Low Validates usage frequency

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3. Map your assumptions in the framework to validate the right assumptions

Categorize your assumptions based on importance and ease of testing.

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